Since 1850, global temperatures have risen about 1.2°C. Scientists project continued warming through 2100, with the Arctic warming 2–3× faster than the rest of the world.
Future warming varies dramatically — from 1.5°C to 4.5°C — depending entirely on which emission pathway humanity chooses to follow.
This interactive map lets you explore three climate futures year by year — to see how the choices we make today shape the world of tomorrow.
CMIP6 Climate Projections
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An Explorable Explanation of CMIP6 Climate Projections
🌡️ By 2100, will your city be 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer or 5 degrees warmer? The answer depends entirely on the choices we make today.
📊 Research Question: How do different emission pathways affect global and regional temperature warming by 2100?
SSP = Shared Socioeconomic Pathway: each scenario models a different future based on global emission choices, ranging from aggressive climate action (SSP1-2.6) to unchecked fossil fuel growth (SSP5-8.5).
In 2015, the world signed the Paris Agreement. Global temperatures had already risen roughly 1°C above pre-industrial levels, with the warming signal unmistakable in every region. Scientists were now certain: the planet would keep warming — but how much depended entirely on future choices.
CMIP6 models three distinct emission pathways. SSP1-2.6 imagines a world that rapidly decarbonizes, keeping warming close to 1.5°C. SSP2-4.5 follows current policy trends toward roughly 2.7°C. SSP5-8.5 assumes fossil fuel growth continues unchecked — a worst-case 4–5°C world by 2100.
By 2030, all three scenarios still look similar — greenhouse gas inertia means early differences are small. But the Arctic is already responding faster than the rest of the planet, warming roughly 2–3× the global average. CMIP6 models consistently show polar amplification beginning well before mid-century.
Under high emissions (SSP5-8.5), CMIP6 models project the Arctic Ocean could see its first ice-free September as early as the late 2040s. The loss of sea ice triggers a feedback: dark ocean water absorbs more sunlight than reflective ice, accelerating warming further. This is polar amplification in action.
Under high emissions, CMIP6 models project the global mean temperature crossing 2°C above pre-industrial levels around mid-century. This is the upper guardrail of the Paris Agreement. Beyond it, IPCC assessments find substantially higher risks: more extreme heat events, disrupted monsoons, and accelerating sea level rise.
In the same year 2060, the low-emissions pathway shows a dramatically different picture. Under SSP1-2.6, global warming stabilizes near 1.5°C as CO2 emissions approach net zero. Compare the map to the previous step — the color difference tells the story of what human choices can prevent.
CMIP6 shows warming is deeply unequal. High-latitude regions like Canada, Russia, and Scandinavia warm 1.5–2× the global average. Meanwhile, tropical and equatorial regions — home to billions of people with fewer resources to adapt — face longer, more intense heat seasons and disrupted rainfall patterns.
By 2080, the three pathways diverge sharply. Under low emissions, warming has stabilized. Under high emissions, every decade adds another ~0.3–0.4°C. The thermometer is a stark illustration: a fraction of a degree doesn't sound like much, but it means millions more people exposed to deadly heat.
Under unchecked fossil fuel growth, CMIP6 projects 4–5°C of global warming by 2100. Sea levels could rise over a meter. Arctic summers become ice-free for five months of the year. Large portions of the tropics experience conditions dangerous for outdoor labor. This is the world we leave if emissions are not reduced.
Under low emissions, the world of 2100 is recognizable — still warming, but at ~1.5°C above pre-industrial. The most catastrophic tipping points are avoided. The difference between this map and the previous one is not inevitable — it is entirely determined by choices made in the next 10–20 years. Now explore it yourself.
🌍 Hover over any country to see its temperature anomaly. Countries in red are warming faster.